Search Game Tactics: Should Google Buy Hakia?
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As the search saga continues, rumor has it Microsoft is just about to announce it did a little shopping and acquired Powerset – one of the leaders in natural language search. On the other hand, Microsoft’s future plans of buying Yahoo’s search functionalities no longer seem dead and buried, as they’ve teamed up with billionaire Carl Icahn and áre working hard on convincing Yahoo’s board to choose the MS path.
All this news begs the question; “Should Google start doing some serious thinking and then try to compensate with its own tactical moves?” Would buying Hakia (the other leader in semantic search startups) give them a strategic advantage on the semantic search market?
If we give credit to a Microsoft-Yahoo-Powerset trio as a serious search competitor to Google, then Google really should do something soon to make absolutely sure no one threatens their position. Buying Hakia would be the smart move. Although lacking any smart marketing and PR thinking, there’s still quite a lot of buzz around Hakia these days and surely Google can implement its never failing business strategy to boost Hakia on the first position in the semantic race.
On the other hand, such a move would also mean betting it all on rumors that will only be proved right or wrong in a month or so. If Google chooses to sit tight and wait to see what happens, they might lose too much ground. Let’s say Microsoft has its way and buys both Yahoo and Powerset and everything about these acquisitions is clear by the end of July, there’s still a lot of merging to be taken care of.
Integrating teams of three different players whose values, business models and views might significantly differ, while embarking on a race against time in development and integration, is not the easiest thing to do. Even if the result of this “Brotherhood of the Search” is something to make Google tremble, our sometime evil friend still has some 4 to 6 months before starting to worry.
If it’s true Google is already adding some semantic ingredients to its search recipe, as some experts point out what’s happening behind closed doors might be (1) as good as anything Powerset has to offer or (2) seamlessly integrated with Hakia in no time.
So should Google buy Hakia? They should, if they want to make sure no one threatens their position when it comes to semantic search (blocking a MS, Yahoo, Powerset, hakia combination). This of course would only be a good move if they don’t have highly advanced semantic tools already and if what they have is harder to further develop than to be integrated with Hakia. It also makes sense to keep the aforementioned combination from materialiing in the event the “fearsome 4” could collectively challenge.
It is an interesting time for search and for the companies mentioned. It will be fascinating to watch how the bibg boys play this hand out. Adding Microsoft and Yahoo to the equation certianly gives one pause at least in continuing to assume Google will be tops forever.
There are a couple of questions here: 1) What is the value that Google should see in semantic search 2) What is the value the Google actually sees in semantic search and 3) Would Hakia either of the first two constraints.
I don’t believe that Google thinks that there is a problem, but it’s also not clear to me how Hakia would help their situation at all.
{mark} powerset product manager
Hi Mark,
Thanks for the input. It is has been a little tough for me this last year or so…on the one hand comparing friends at hakia and Powerset, and on the other analyzing the separate engines.
You make a good point, which I believe Alina would not disagree with in that she just proposed “what if’s” really. As you know, much of this is about strategy from a business point of view. From what I know about the two engines …I liked the hakia approach slightly better than Powerset’s in the interim. However, for all outward appearances Powerset’s latest iteration seems to at least be superior in that the way in which the search UI is set up it is very well thought out and organized. Hakia has offered similar utility over the last months too, but not nearly as useful or thoughtful with regard to how the interface or function effects the user. Powerset’s model is super nice and mindfully organized.
This says literally nothing about the engines behind the scenes of either entity however. Not having first hand knowledge of the exact capabilities of these engines, none of us can do more than speculate as to the final semantic or other search effectiveness of either. We can only gauge either by the outward appearance and relative look and feel of the entities.
This all being said, the value to Google is a relative foggy cloud as you say. However, from a strategic and PR standpoint, a company would seem to have to deploy forces across from competitors of some kind. In this scenario, hakia would be a logical choice or at least one of them. It is after all a bold and potentially ground breaking undertaking considering all hakia is striving to do.
This is the long way around the barn toward challenging both of you guys to allow me or another search efficianado to actually evaluate in full what is behind curtain number one, two and three. I stand virtually exactly where I always did on the differences and relative chances both companies have of succeeding, and I also root for both sets of friends too. I expect hakia has the better methodology as far as the engine itself, while Powerset appears to have a superior vision and development of configuring the supportive elements and partnership potential. This is really all anyone save Barney and Riza can assume. At this point it is still about perception.
The bottom line is, Google has the money to buy rocket science or the needed scientists to do anything a startup funded as hakia and Powerset were can. If it is more feasible to simply buy the technology, then they will. The defining circumstance here is MS (and maybe Yahoo) versus Google. I have long said that MS would not or cannot stand by and allow Google to gather much more momentum. The “why would Google” question is easily answered in any number of their other acquisitions. Because they can!
We leave out several other entities in this discourse. I have long be a proponent of one or several of you startups joining forces eg. Powerset, hakia, Search Wikia and etc. I know this has been discussed from an insider (sort of) point of view. The issue here has been investors and the way things line up primarily. As in everything else on the Web, developers actually believe they have all the answers. This is partially narcissistic and partially a function of having to convince the money people of the same periodically.
Let’s put all the cards on the table shall we? All my search friends are under a great deal of pressure. I sympathize really. I said this would be the year of search many times. Right now Riza is pissed at me for one critical post out of innumerable ones about hakia. In a similar fashion, Barney was not thrilled with me when I assumed the shakeup last year was over investor friction. Similarly, you may be upset with me over finally revealing (after it has become obvious) that you told me last year that Powerset was built to sell in an IM conversation. I never spilled on that, never broke and embargo and always tried to be impartial.
So, here we are still playing the PR game when it is about time you guys (Powerset and hakia) let the world know exactly where semantic or natural language search is. I am not jockeying for the scoop, but I doubt you could name a more impartial or friendly mouthpiece.
Obviously the game is still at hand. I am still rooting for hakia, Powerset and Search Wikia both because of friend and the potential for good your work embodies. I am however, not totally altruistic. I think if your greatest supporters call for a “put up or shut up”, then perhaps it is time to do so.
Barney said it best the last time we talked about a release: “These are baby steps toward actual natural language search.” This is fine and obviously on the money. If we could slice through all the BS and allow someone to see what is really there, it would go a long way to gauging progress for everyone. I have asked Riza and Co. quite a few times to allow me into their hakia Labs. I do not know who they could trust more on the outside to go there? It never happened.
If I sound a little “on my ear”, I am. From the onset of this race many of us invested hundreds of hours and actual interest in what you guys are doing. For your part and that of others, you simply acknowledged the readership and the news rather than the people. This is business I guess, but consider that I could write about a fire engine hitting a tree with a cat in it and get more traffic.
Why would MS want to buy Powerset? Because they believe you made something of value. Let’s not minimize our opponents here. Hakia is a worthy competitor. If I were Google, I would offer hakia $200 million right now just for the news. LOL - show Phil the engine and let the cards fall where they may.
I do appreciate the comment Mark, honestly. This is unplugged tho and here I tend to say what I am thinking when I think it.
Always,
Phil
This is an interesting argument. If I had to guess, I’d say that Hakia is currently a small blip on Google’s radar. I believe Hakia is one of Yahoo’s BOSS Custom partners, which doesn’t necessarily say great things about the stand-alone quality of their engine.
But it will be interesting to see how this play’s out.
I strongly doubt that Google will buy hakia or that they are even “monitoring” hakia’s move. Google has its own resources in this field and according to Peter Norvig semantic search is the last of their concerns.
Latest trends in what Google’s representatives state lead more to a “social” aspect of the search engine. Besides, I am sure Google has the resources to create AI if they want to.
Thanks for the great comments! I suspect I should relate my real concerns about search and statups in general here. It seems we all get into the same arguments all be it they go around and around apparently.
My greatest gripe against Google, or any Web entity for that matter, is not necessarily what they produce. Rather, the big problem with business, companies and even people is about “What they could have done”. Google by definition of a leader is mediocre at best. With massive resources and untold billions to strive for excellence, they are always playing “grab ass” instead of doing anything significant.
Perhaps this is a function of success or security - not pushing the envelope once a perceived or relative level of security has been achieved. Powerset and hakia railed about creating the perfect search engine, Google is supposed to be the best! What is the best? A social search engine where social networking gurus exchange mutually gratifying links?
I am and never will be about what is, but rather about what could be. We all live in the hope that things will get better, people will be more kind a loving, wars will end and that we can perform a search and go exactly to where we want to be. Where is that?
We should always be watching to see where things are going, but why? So that we can avoid catastrophe, so that the greatest good can be achieved? I will vote for these. More often than not we are just simply influenced - period. We are so manipulated, so almost predictable. I suppose this is not all together a bad thing, but it can be constricting or even limiting.
Google no doubt has something up its sleeve, or does it? My impression, especially since some insider things have transpired, is that the money of the Web has taken up its old position as the only real important thing. All else seems to pale in comparison. Funny, we all want heroes and magic, when all the while we simply look for comfort and the status quo.
The reason I supported the semantic engines was not out of some desire to see Google fail, hell they should create it. The reason was the same one you use when you see something so potentially life changing or defining. Your favorite team wins with little chance, a child smiles in the face of adversity, a loved one embraces the heartfelt joy you give them. Hope! I hope these guys do what they said they would.
Google never said anything. How could they..they offer no hope…they offer the least common denomincator ion every case. The most economical and the most efficient way to maintain that same status quo - being on top. I doubt they will ever take over the world because just in the nick of time someone will come along with something extraordinary..I had hoped it would be hakia or Powerset.
We shall see.
Always,
Phil