Are Social Networks Dieing?
By Phil Butler on Jan 31, 2008 in Featured, Uncategorized, social networks
For over a year I have been in “hate“with MySpace. Then along came Facebook, and I was immediately in “like“with it. Then a cool, dark reality set in. Even the best laid out developments are prone to run out of gas. I think this happens after the initial “spurt“ of creativity and newness wears off, and the developers start “brainstorming“ quirky new features that have instant appeal, but no real value. I was particularly upset when I found out that it would „actually“ cost me $1 to send a friend a beer. Yes, I am a member of Facebook.
I read an article today that pretty much validates something I have thought for a long time (and this is not rocket science folks) - people have about had it with social networks. According to this article on The Register, Web analytics data from comScore indicates that people are bored with social networks. The data shows that all three of the largest social networks, MySpace, Bebo and Facebook have fallen in traffic. User engagement is also dropping off, and sales people seem to be scrambling to transform free space into profits.
Murdock - Do Something, Quick!
So, what do you do when you have 100 million restless, bored people hanging out and waiting for the next background template? Well, you add features to prolong the agony of your faithful, that’s what. Just as I started to write this article I read a story on the NYT’s site about MySpace and Skype working a deal to brighten up the MySpace landscape. If that is not enough, another on Forbes was a story about MySpace adding tools for developers so that they can create games and the like, to further dampen the woes of the socially unsociable. I guess Facebook will now come out with a car wash game that allows users to get their imaginary cars done for $1.
The End Is Near
Unless these developers get wise, the Web social landscape is going to be strewn with the disfigured bodies of as men and CEO’s in my view. Just what is it that these places are allowing people to do that email or IM cannot? Face it, you could write a letter to a friend and have it arrive almost as fast as your friend finally gets to your Facebook beer offer! I have been covering Web 2.0 for over a year and I honestly thought we would be “Wowed” by now. If the numbers keep telling this story, YouTube might be the next big social network. Hell, at least you can watch videos and isn’t that like TV?
No matter how hard I try I just can’t get into sites like Myspace, Facebook and the like. Am I too old and jaded?
I far prefer the community that builds around a dedicated forum or blog site.
HMTKSteve | Jan 31, 2008 | Reply
Thank you, Phil, for making me feel a little less old skool.
We’ve hosted a handful of focus groups here at Me.dium looking into how people are using Facebook. The one theme that always stands out is that everyone hates ‘apps.’ They’re sick of buying each other beers, becoming vampires or striper ninja pirates. More importantly, their sick of hearing that all of their friends have done one of these things. I sum it up by saying that the main feature of most FB applications is to be viral. Who cares what it does as long as it spreads like wildfire.
I don’t see people abandoning these sites, but I see their attention spreading out beyond the networks borders. Great herds of young hipsters migrating from one cool site to another in an attempt to stay ahead of the marketers.
Dean Steadman | Feb 1, 2008 | Reply
Dude, as always, love cogitating over your well-written work…..you always inspire my “gray matter” to get off the couch and do some real work!
Michael Parrish | Feb 2, 2008 | Reply
I am with you Steve, Dean. If you think about it, so many of our Web 2.0 applications seem like half hearted insertions. Why don’t these guys keep developing as if they had just started up, rather than “Googling” us to death with BS.
We will never get to the next phase if developers continues to offer piecemeal “goodies” rather than real value.
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 2, 2008 | Reply
Blood! Thanks for visiting Mike. I just tell it like I see it as you know man. Come back.
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 2, 2008 | Reply
I joined FaceBook because it was the only place where some old friends spend their online time. It was fun at first, then all the apps and things asking me to do something, take weird quizzes and just send drinks to friends bored the hell out of me. I think such sites should be more about sharing interests, building relationships and focusing on topics of real interest, not just playing around with toys
Alina Popescu | Feb 2, 2008 | Reply
Thanks Alina! I too joined to connect with friends, and it seemed like a good congregating point for friends from a wide variety of venues.
Like you, I think that interests, I mean true interests are the key to making a network work.
Thanks for your insight Alina
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 2, 2008 | Reply
Good post Phil! Not sure if social networks in general are dying, or just specific ones. I think the life cycle of all services is much shorter these days, as technology grows exponentially. Facebook and Myspace are perhaps just being replaced by Stumbleupon et al.
Jeff Quipp | Feb 3, 2008 | Reply
I’m not so sure that people have about had it. I’m wondering of this the process of the dust starting to settle. With initial craze around social networks, I think everybody ran to all of them, signing up for MySpace, Facebook, StumbleUpon, Twitter, etc. all in a wave.
Perhaps, people are not find their the site they like best and just staying there. Personally, SU is my hang and I can’t stand facebook. Others feel the complete opposite.
It’ll be interesting to see where it all heads from here. It does, however, have the potential to change the online landscape.
Great post.
Tapping Creativity | Feb 3, 2008 | Reply
Good point Jeff! I suppose you are right and we are talking about a relative death here. Maybe even a transition (which I hope is true) in that these sites will finally have to become more refined out of monetary necessity.
I appreciate your insight and I sure hope Web 3.0 will not be about just fun widgets that calm the bored masses.
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 3, 2008 | Reply
I am with you Creativity. SU is the most progressive and creativity geared network. People need lots of input into these systems and especially in the beauty department I think. I love all the images on SU combined wit personal aspects.
Thanks so much for your take
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 3, 2008 | Reply
Have to agree with Jeff. Way too much time and too much ‘auto-submitting’ going on to keep these sites relevant. We’re all participating in some way or another, but someone will, at some point, tie many of these together and come up with a more practical and ‘valid’ solution. The dialog and networking MUST continue. We’re a Facebook watcher as well. Look for major stuff there during 2008.
Charlie Anzman | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
I agree Charlie. Perhaps our most valuable commodity on the Web today is discussion. I guess this basic form or thinking and communicating is what we are really here for in the first place.
I hope these networks work to improve the quality of this….it is where Web 3.0 starts.
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
@Tapping, I’m with you… Different social sites appeal to different kinds of people — that’s really cool. Yet, it’s also scary, because there are a lot of people out there with really bad taste.
This weekend I went down to see family in a nearby city. My sister-in-law was really gung ho about the “Puppy Bowl” that was going to be on the Animal Planet channel — she thought my son would be really into it.
Well, the Puppy Bowl turned out to more evidence of the death of television… They’d better get those writers back to work! Devoid of any direction, plot or narrative, the Puppy Bowl held my son’s attention for about two minutes, and the adults for about three minutes… For a show that goes on for three hours.
My sister-in-law was really let down, but this happens to her a lot. She gets sucked into every stupid thing that comes down the pike. She loves MySpace and Slingo. She was indignant when Time Warner was unable to install craplets on a Windows XP machine when Windows XP was brand new — although I demonstrated that she could browse the web, send email and even watch videos online, she thought she was missing something and wanted to get a refund. A Windows install lasts about two weeks when she’s using it, because her idea of a good time is downloading every piece of malware that comes from Russia with love. She can’t stand using Linux or a Mac because browsing non-malware sites on the web doesn’t entertain her.
There are plenty of people on the bottom rung who aren’t going to be happy if they aren’t paying $1 to send “a beer”. The rest of us are going to move on. Marketers will profit, since there are few lists more valuable than “opportunity seekers” who’ll buy records from Columbia House without knowing how much they cost, and who’ll sign up for a $9.99 monthly service to get a “free” ringtone.
Zany Zebra | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
Zany I get all warm and fuzzy too when these companies try to monetize things in such creative ways.
I think as we see numbers start to level out and ad companies get a better grasp of their ROI, then unless a site can outperform the others..it will be a feeding frenzy for weird monetization schemes. Just a thought..thanks for your great input!
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m of the same opinion as a few of the other commenters: social networks in general are not dying, just those that fail to change are. Internet as a whole is full of change and you cannot stay on top, if you fail to accommodate the changed interests of users. I don’t know what will be the next big thing about social networks, but I believe there will be one.
Sutocu | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
I believe so too Sutocu, I just thought it would be before now is all . thanks for adding insight.
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m in the target age group for both MySpace and Facebook, and, to be honest, I never saw the point of Facebook–you can’t blog, there wasn’t music, and it’s just as easy for a friend to call me or text me about a party/going out as it is for them to send out a mass invite to their entire list of friends. MySpace I always used more to find new music than anything, but I rarely use it now.
I thought Livejournal would be the next step, because it is definitely still going strong, but it’s fueled by a love for various ‘fandoms’ versus Facebook and MySpace, which are purely social.
I think you’re right about Youtube–there are already regular video bloggers who are using it (I admit, I’m closely following the one about Prince Caspian). Either that or Livejournal/MySpace/Facebook need to figure out some way to incorporate video blogging into their platform to keep up with YouTube.
Katherine | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
Interesting topic. I think mature web users tire quickly of social networks such as Facebook. I know I certainly did. My experience was exactly as you had described it, I quickly realised it didn’t offer any communication opportunities over email and IM. And yes… the viral applications annoy the crap out of me. I still don’t understand why so many people engage with them.
I don’t think social networks are dead however. I think they’ll always remain popular with high school and university students as they largely represent a popularity contest. It just may be that they become less prominent as the older demographics tire of the ‘gimmicky’ features.
James Duthie | Feb 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m totally with you re Facebook ‘aps’ fatigue. I joined Facebook because lots of my friends were bemoaning the fact that if they wanted to contact me, they had to email / text / call me; consequently I signed up.
It’s been quite good in some respects - some people who I’d long since lost touch with made contact which was cool; but oddly, many people made contact who I barely know (friends of friends who I’ve met only once); or worse - people I actively dislike.
Interestingly I think these social sites have created a new breed of ‘collectors’ obsessed with the number of ‘friends’ they have.
Sadly, I think I’m done with these sites…meeting friends for real (rather than virtual) beer is more fun :o)
Hannah | Feb 5, 2008 | Reply
Righto Katherine, Facebook not exactly the greatest innovation, just popular like a hula hoop. Thanks so much!
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 5, 2008 | Reply
Thanks James, it looks like we are all in the same boat and I think this could be reflective of the whole Web populace too. I want these things to succeed, but not without even trying.
Thanks Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 5, 2008 | Reply
Hannah, I have many friends developed here in the digital realm, but it is sad to realize that many who might call themselves friends are not.
I think the ratio is about the same actually when compared to outside this realm….people tend to be people no matter where in the end.
Thanks so much,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 5, 2008 | Reply
I cannot see Facebook dying for quite a while. Certainly many people who were there at the start will move away from it; the ones that were looking for a more serious networking type application and the more web savvy.
Its huge growth did not continue to be fueled by these people though. It attracted those who like the features you and I have come to dislike. Teenagers have embraced it as have those whose only online interaction to date has been email and perhaps a chat program. I am getting friend requests from people who I never thought would use an online application.
Yesterday an overseas visitor, in her mid 20’s, having not had access to the internet for weeks while traveling, did not first check her email but logged on to Facebook to check her messages.
Facebook IS still increasing in numbers, albeit less than last year. Other social networks are suffering because of it.
Sueblimely | Feb 7, 2008 | Reply
Hi Sue,
I guess I should fall back past the actual “death” of these entities and just say “relative death”. I agree with your take too, as these hugely popular sites have a great brand loyalty aspect to them too.
For me…the next phase of Web deployment will be the interesting one, after the competition gets hotter over visitors. Thanks so much for your take Sue!
Always,
Phil
Phil Butler | Feb 7, 2008 | Reply